Oregon (5-4) at #12 Washington (7-1)
Saturday, 7 p.m.
Alaska Airlines Field (Husky Stadium)
Line: Washington -17.5
TV: Fox Sports 1 Radio: KOMO
The No. 12 ranked Washington Huskies will face their bitter rivals, the Oregon Ducks, Saturday night at Husky Stadium. Despite the fans hatred, Washington players and coaches are treating this like any other week of the season. The Huskies beat the Ducks in Eugene last year, 70-21, ending their 12-game losing streak to Oregon in the heated rivalry.
“Yeah I don’t know. It was just one of those games that it just all clicked,” Coach Petersen said about UW’s 70-21 win over Oregon last season. You always have those games now and again where everything just kind of goes right. And I think that was one of those games last year.”
One of the key storylines coming into this game is the health of Oregon starting quarterback Justin Herbert. The sophomore has missed the last four games after suffering a broken collarbone on Sept. 30th against California. Since then, the Ducks are 1-3 and are averaging just 80.25 yards per game through the air. Herbert’s status remains up in the air for Saturday’s game.
Oregon’s offense as they have for a number of years features a heavy run approach and tempo. The Ducks are averaging 35.6 points per game. Oregon’s 446 rushing attempts are most in the Pac-12. As a team, Oregon ranks No. 2 in the conference in rushing, averaging 256.1 yards per game on the ground. The Ducks’ passing offense has been hampered by the injury of Justin Herbert. Oregon ranks No. 11 in the Pac-12 in passing, averaging 189.3 yards per game.
On defense, the Ducks have been much improved after Jim Leavitt took over the defense. In 2016, Oregon allowed 41.4 points per game. This year, Oregon has the No. 7 ranked scoring defense in the conference, allowing 29.2 points per game. The Ducks’ front seven is the strength of their defense. UO’s 30 sacks ranks No. 1 in the Pac-12. Oregon has struggled a bit in pass defense, giving up 253.7 yards per game.
Washington’s offense still ranks towards the top of the conference in scoring. UW’s 38.6 points per game ranks No. 2 in the conference. However, UW’s passing game hasn’t been any where near where it was in 2016. Washington’s pass offense ranks No. 8 in the Pac-12, averaging 227.6 yards through the air. The loss of John Ross has been evident this season, combined with a few season ending injuries on offense. Despite the passing game issues, UW has scored over 30 points in seven games this season.
The Huskies’ defense continues to be dominant week in and week out. Washington’s scoring defense ranks No. 4 in the nation, allowing 12.1 points per game. The only time UW’s defense allowed over 20 points came last week against UCLA, when the Bruins recovered a fumble for a TD to finish with 23 points. In four games this season, UW has held opponents to 10 points or fewer. It doesn’t matter who you plug into this defense, they continue to be one of the best in the country.
Key Players: Washington
(QB) Jake Browning
The junior quarterback has yet to have that breakthrough game this season. After winning the Offensive Player of the Year in the Pac-12, 2017 hasn’t been quite the same. Injuries to starting left tackle trey Adams, WR Chico McClacther, and TE Hunter Bryant has not helped things. Last week in a 44-23 win against UCLA, Browning completed 8-11 passes for 98 yards and an interception. For the season, Browning has thrown for 1,703 yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions and is completing 68.7 percent of his passes.
(LB) Ben Burr-Kirven
Called the “unsung hero” by starting cornerback Myles Bryant, Ben Burr-Kirven is having an all-conference type of season. Burr-Kirven leads the team in tackles with 49. Coming into the season, Ben Burr-Kirven was an afterthought and was thought to be a backup middle linebacker behind preseason All-American Azeem Victor. But Burr-Kirven has played so well it appears he will stay as the starter the rest of the season.
(OLB) Tevis Bartlett
The 6-foot-2, 234-pound junior outside linebacker is having his best year as a Husky. Tevis Bartlett leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss. On a defense that feeds of big plays, Bartlett always seems to find a way in the opposing backfield.
Key Players: Oregon
(RB) Royce Freeman
The 6-foot, 238-pound senior is back to playing like one of the best running backs in the nation after being banged up for most of last season. Royce Freeman has already rushed for 1,096 yards and 10 touchdowns. Freeman is averaging 121.8 yards per game on the ground and has a 6.0-yard per carry average.
(LB) Troy Dye
The 6-foot-4, 224-pound sophomore linebacker is having another great season for the Ducks. Troy Dye’s 80 tackles leads the team and is second most in the conference. Dye’s 10.5 tackles for loss ranks No. 3 in the Pac-12. To go along with all those impressive stats, Troy Dye also has four sacks.
(QB) Braxton Burmeister or Justin Herbert
We’ve been over the stats between the two quarterbacks. If it’s Burmeister, the Ducks will likely rely heavily on the running game as they’ve done the last four games. If Herbert starts, Oregon becomes more balanced on offense. We likely won’t know who will be starting at QB until right around kickoff.
Keys to the game
1. Stop the Run
Oregon relies heavily on their running game especially when Justin Herbert doesn’t play. Washington’s defense is No. 2 in the nation against the run, allowing just 71.6 yards per game. UW’s defense also ranks No. 1 in yards per carry allowed, at just 2.18 yards per carry. If UW can shutdown the Ducks’ running game it will be hard for Oregon on offense.
2. Get the running game going early
On offense, the Huskies need to get their running game going early. The Huskies put up 333 yards rushing against UCLA’s poor rushing defense last week. This week presents a different challenge for UW, going against an Oregon defense allowing 3.32 yards per carry. The battle in the trenches will be interesting to watch Saturday night.
3. Win the turnover battle
Washington has not been winning the turnover battle as much as they did last year. In Washington’s last four games, they have a zero turnover margin. That needs to start changing, especially with how good this defense is.
Game Notes
- Washington leads the all-time series between the schools 59-45-5
- Myles Gaskin (3,470) needs 27 yards to pass Bishop Sankey (3,496) for No. 3 on UW’s all-time rushing list
- UW’s defense has not allowed over 28 points in 22 straight games (longest streak in the country)
- Jake Browning (73) needs three more touchdown passes to pass Keith Price (75) for No. 1 on UW’s all-time passing TD list.
- Washington is 11-0 dating back to last season when a Husky player rushes for 100 yards or more
Prediction
Oregon’s quarterback situation is a huge question mark surrounding this game. Washington is 4-0 at home in 2017 with an average margin of victory of 35 points. If Washington can stop Oregon’s strong rushing offense, it could be really tough for the Ducks to move the ball. For UW’s offense, they might have to rely more on the passing game going against a solid Oregon front seven.
Washington should be able to limit Royce Freeman with their strong run defense. I think Jake Browning gets going this week.
Washington 38 Oregon 17
