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Preview and prediction: Apple Cup edition

#17 Washington State (9-2) at #13 Washington (9-2)

Saturday, 5 p.m.

Husky Stadium

Line: Washington -10.5

TV: FOX Radio: KOMO

The Washington Huskies are coming off a thrilling, 33-30, win over the Utah Utes. UW scored 10 points in the final 58 seconds, ending with a game winning 39-yard field goal as time expired.

This week presents a much different challenge for the 9-2 Washington Huskies. It’s Apple Cup week. The Huskies have beat the Cougars four straight years. Head coach Chris Petersen is 3-0 against Mike Leach, and his teams have outscored WSU, 121-40, in those games, including UW’s 45-17 win last season.

“It’s an important one. Everybody’s got skin in the game this week. The games all are so important to us every week, it really is. It’s hard to make one game more important than another. But you get it from the outside. You can feel it. That’s what the beauty of college football is.”

It’s been Washington State’s defense, under Alex Grinch, that has stolen some of the shine of the Cougars’ offense. WSU’s defense ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in total defense, allowing 303.8 yards per game. The Cougars also rank No. 3 in the conference in scoring defense, allowing 22.9 points per game. Washington State’s “speed” defense has forced 27 turnovers, including seven turnovers in WSU’s, 33-25, win over Utah.

“This is one of the for sure top defenses in the league,” Coach Petersen said about the Cougars defense.

Washington State’s “air raid” offense ranks No. 5 in the nation, averaging 375.3 yards passing per game. What’s really interesting about WSU’s offense is their ability to control the ball despite so many passing plays. The Cougars’ 33:32 time of possession per game, ranks No. 1 in the conference.

Switching over to Washington, the Huskies’ offense hasn’t been as explosive this year and they have struggled on the road. But at home this season, UW has scored at least 33 points in every game. Washington’s 36.5 points per game this season, ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12. For a down year, the Huskies’ offense still has been pretty solid.

Washington’s defense has allowed 30 points in consecutive weeks. Before the loss to Stanford, UW’s defense had not allowed an opponent over 28 points since the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl. Despite the recent struggles, Washington’s defense is allowing just 14.5 points per game, ranking No. 1 in the Pac-12 and No. 5 in the nation.

Key Players: Washington 

(QB) Jake Browning

The junior quarterback became the school’s all-time TD passing leader after tossing two touchdowns in UW’s win against Utah. For his career, Jake Browning has thrown 77 touchdowns at Washington. Browning has not had the year most expected but leading a comeback win against Utah might have peaked his confidence for the rest of the season.

(CB) Byron Murphy

The redshirt freshman was finally back on the field for his first Pac-12 game ever, after being out with a broken foot. The rust was definitely a factor, as Byron Murphy gave up two touchdowns against Utah. With that game out of the way, expect a bounce back performance for the talented cornerback out of Arizona.

(CB) Myles Bryant

With Washington State’s air raid offense coming to town, Myles Bryant should get plenty of action Saturday. With the return of Byron Murphy, Myles Bryant is back to playing nickel corner. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bryant make a big play in his first Apple Cup starting.

Key Players: Washington State

(QB) Luke Falk

The senior is now ninth all-time in FBS passing yards, with 14,117 yards. Luke Falk has thrown for 300+ yards in six games this season. Washington State is 6-0 in those games. It’s been a bit of a weird year for the Pac-12’s all-time passing leader however. Falk was benched vs Boise State and Arizona during the games. Falk’s struggles have come on the road, where he’s thrown seven interceptions to seven touchdowns. Luke Falk is 0-2 in Apple Cups and will be looking to change that Saturday.

(DT) Hercules Mata’afa

The 6-foot-2, 255-pound defensive tackle has been a wreaking ball on WSU’s defensive front. Hercules Mata’afa’s 21.5 tackles for loss, leads the conference. Mata’afa’s 9.5 sacks also leads the Pac-12. What kind of impact Hercules Mata’afa has Saturday could have a huge impact on the game.

(WR) Tavares Martin Jr.

The 6-foot-1 wide receiver, is WSU’s leading receiver by a long shot. Tavares Martin’s 769 receiving yards is over 200 yards more than any WSU WR. Martin’s nine receiving touchdowns are four more than anyone on the team.

Keys to the game

1. Get off to a fast start

Under Chris Petersen, UW has led every Apple Cup after the first quarter. All three of those games they went on to win in blowout fashion. Getting an early lead against WSU is important. The defense can pin their ears back and get after Luke Falk.

2. Get the running game going

Washington needs to get the running game going early in this game. Washington State ranks No. 2 in the conference in rush defense, allowing 129.6 yards per game. WSU does have an undersized but fast front seven, so it will be interesting to see how the Huskies attack them.

3. Create turnovers

In UW’s last three Apple Cups, they have forced 14 WSU turnovers, to just three of their own. Washington won those games by a combined score of 121-40. The Huskies haven’t been creating as many turnovers as last season and are due for a big takeaway day.

Game Notes

*Washington leads the all-time series between the schools, 71-32-6

*This will be the seventh meeting between the schools when both teams are ranked. UW is 4-2 in those game.

*Chris Petersen’s .821 win percentage (128-28) ranks No. 2 in the FBS, only trailing Urban Meyer.

*This is Bob Rondeau’s last home game calling Husky football.

*Washington needs just one win to have back-to-back 10+ win seasons for the first time since 1990-91.

Prediction

This has potential to be the best Apple Cup in a long time. Washington hasn’t looked the same on offense this season and is battling some key injuries. With that said, UW has some momentum after their last comeback win against Utah. They will be behind the home crowd and it should give them a boost. In the end, UW’s defense creates some turnovers and the offense does enough to get the job done.

Washington 31 Washington State 21

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