The Washington Huskies are back home after a frustrating trip to New Jersey where they fell to Rutgers 18-21. The defense mostly held the Scarlet Knight offense and gave the team every opportunity to win. The offense was also extremely effective throughout the game as they moved the ball with ease between the twenties.

The issues came in the red zone.

Washington failed to score touchdowns. The Huskies elected for two field goals which have been automatic on the foot of Grady Gross. Unfortunately Gross had his worst game as a Husky when he missed two makeable field goals and missed a third on a prayer of a 55-yard kick as time expired.

Washington now welcomes #10 Michigan to Husky Stadium and finds themselves as 2.5 point favorites. This could be a mystery if someone just looks at the matchup at face value. The Wolverines sit at 4-1 with a big win over USC at home and squeaked one out over Minnesota last weekend making them 2-0 in the conference. One the other hand, Washington sits at 3-2 with two losses against inferior opponents.

All these factors should make for a 6-9 point favorite for the road team. However, the reality the narrative around the seasons both of these programs have had a layered in nuance.

Michigan: The reality of the season the Wolverines have had this year is a season of sloppy wins and good defense. The Wolverines were never in the Texas loss. The Longhorns did whatever they wanted in Ann Arbor that day which makes sense as Texas looks like a legitimate championship contender.

Their wins haven’t been pretty either.

Forget the games Davis Warren started, he is an inaccurate quarterback who lost his job and the offense is different with Alex Orji under center. In the two full games Orji has started (USC and Minnesota) the farthest completion has been 16 yards. Michigan has taken offensive football back to the time that Minnesota was winning national championships. To their credit they have made enough plays in the running game to give their defense a chance to win the game.

The defense is still very good. Their front seven is elite and looks to give the anemic offense the ball on the plus side of the field. They get after the passer and their physical corners bully opposing pass catchers.

Favorable Matchups

Quarterback: The only quarterback Michigan has seen that is worth talking about is Quinn Ewers. Ewers threw for 246 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. While Will Rogers isn’t the prospect that Ewers is, his numbers stack up well. Rogers doesn’t throw interceptions, gets out of dicey situations, and gets the ball out quickly. Will Rogers’ playstyle helps negate some of the things that Michigan does well.

Running Back: One of the biggest reasons for the national Championship loss was the inability to get anything going on the ground. Dillon Johnson was severely limited due to his lower body injuries. This time around Jonah Coleman, Cam Davis, and Adam Mohammed make up an elite trio behind a line that his taken huge strides since game one.

Linebackers: Washington linebackers are playing at an elite level. Alphonzo Tuputala is making himself money next year with how well he is playing and how versatile he is. He can rush from the edge and fills gaps at a high level. Both Tuputala and Bruener will make the right read more often than not as the Wolverine running game tries to stay on the field.

Passing Game: Michigan has no ability to beat the Husky corners over the top. They will instead look to get the ball to their receivers and backs in the flats and look for yards after the catch. Both nickel corners, Jordan Shaw and Dyson McCutcheon, have been violent in stopping those plays before they develop.

Bottom Line: As long as Washington takes care of the ball they have a great chance of winning this game. The defense is one of the best in the nation only giving up 10.4 points a game. They are matched up with an offense that has little ability to be explosive. Michigan will put some long drives together throughout the course of the day, but if Washington doesn’t give them possessions in plus territory it will be hard to see many points from Michigan.

Prediction: Vegas favors the Huskies -2.5 with a total of 41.5 meaning they see this as about a 22-20 Washington victory. I think Washington’s offense has enough weapons in the passing game and the ground game to move the ball on the Wolverines, but scoring touchdowns might be an issue. Grady Gross is one of the best kickers in the nation and will come through for the home team. Washington’s defense will have a similar performance like they did against Rutgers with two or three scoring drives. 20-13 Washington

Washington -2.5
Over 41.5