Four Husky seniors will play their final home game on Saturday against Oregon. One of the few accomplishments that Matisse Thybulle, Dominic Green, David Crisp and Noah Dickerson have yet to do is beat Oregon at Alaska Airlines Arena.
Who: Oregon Ducks (18-21, 9-8) @ Washington Huskies (24-6, 15-2)
When: Tonight @ 7 PM
Where: Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle, WA
How to Watch: ESPN (Free Trials on Sling, YouTubeTV and HuluTV)
The Ducks were the preseason favorite to win the Pac-12 and once had the leading candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year before Bol Bol suffered a season-ending injury. They’ve since lingered around .500 and no team has taken advantage of Oregon’s demise as well as Washington.
Not only have the Huskies already locked up the Pac-12 regular season title but Matisse Thybulle or Jaylen Nowell will make their final bid for conference player of the year. Nowell has been a more steady performer but Thybulle has had a historic defensive season and it’s not out the realm of possibility he could catch Jason Kidd for the single-season steals record with five more against the Ducks. The winner will be announced on Monday.
Oregon Notes: Oregon is on a three game win streak having swept the Arizona schools at home and beating Washington State on Wednesday 72-61 in Pullman.
Paul White led the Ducks with 21 points and 6 rebounds while shooting 4 of 5 from behind the three-point line. Victor Bailey Jr. scored 14 points off the bench in just 17 minutes also going 4 of 5 from behind the arc.
This game has great significance for Oregon who are one of four teams with a 9-8 record and currently tied for fourth in the standings. With a win and losses by Oregon State and Colorado the Ducks would get at a bye in the Pac-12 tournament. A loss would likely place them in the play-in game on Wednesday in Las Vegas.
Payton Pritchard has taken a step back in his junior year seeing his scoring drop from 14.5 to 12.1 ppg, and his 3-point percentage dip from 41.3% to 32.7% but he’s still a capable threat.
Pritchard also has some defensive chops ranking second in the Pac-12 in steals with 1.7 per game. Even if he doubled his per game total he would still trail Thybulle who leads both the conference and nation.
The Last Time
Washington 61 @ Oregon 56 on January 24th, 2019
While Washington’s last three games have come down to the final shot of regulation their first date with Oregon was their only Pac-12 game in the first 14 decided by less than 7 points.
Oregon had the ball in a 56 all tie and was holding for the last shot when Thybulle stripped Pritchard. Nowell picked up the ball and drove down court where he was fouled by Pritchard while double-clutching a running 3-pointer. Nowell sank all three free throws and after an Oregon turnover Thybulle added two more at the line to secure a win for Washington in a game much closer than its final score. The Huskies shot 55% from the field but were burdened by 19 turnovers.
Keys to the Game
Which team will play better defense?
Oregon leads the Pac-12 in fewest points allowed, opponent field goal percentage and opponent 3-point percentage. Both teams were forced into 19 turnovers the first matchup. Oregon is 2nd in the Pac-12 in steals (Washington is first) and recently forced 17 turnovers in Pullman. Expect a low scoring affair.
Can Washington manage their emotions?
The Washington seniors have played over 504 combined games in their career but it’s doubtful any one of them has played in one as emotionally charged as their final appearance in front of the Dawg Pack. This could also be the final home game for Jaylen Nowell who could jump to the NBA after the season.
Washington will need to be ready for a fight. Cal, Stanford and Oregon State played Washington much tougher the second meeting after making adjustments against the 2-3 zone. The Huskies opened the game in Eugene on a 13-2 run, don’t expect the Ducks to take as long this time to find their webbing.
Can Washington get Dominic Green going?
Generally teams start seniors in the rotation on senior day and so I wouldn’t be surprised if Green starts at the 4 over Sam Timmins and Hameir Wright. While Crisp, Thybulle and Dickerson have played some of their best basketball as seniors, Green has struggled with his 3-point shot all season. Entering the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments Washington is going to need as much outside shooting as they can get.
Prediction: Washington has looked shaky the last two weeks and an Oregon team who needs this win more than they do is a scary thought. Washington has motivation though, they have a chance to become the 32nd team in 40 seasons of 18 game Pac-10/Pac-12 play to go undefeated at home. The Huskies may look sloppy at times but they generally don’t play poorly for long stretches of time which is a credit to Mike Hopkins who should get his second straight Pac-12 Coach of the Year Award on Monday. Washington’s seniors have been checking off bucket list items all year and they will finally get their first home win over Oregon on Saturday.
Washington 68 Oregon 60
Last Game Prediction: Washington 79 Oregon State 66
Actual Score: Washington 81 Oregon State 76
