All week the national analyst have talked up the #25 Utah State Aggies for winning 10 games in a row and 17 of their past 18. These Washington Huskies are very familiar with the underdog role and even relish it. We preview the game and what the Huskies need to do to advance to the second round.
Who: (Ninth Seeded) Washington Huskies vs. (Eighth Seeded) Utah State Aggies
Where: Columbus, Ohio
When: Today, 2019 @ 3:50 PM Pacific Time
How to Watch: TNT (7 Day free trial with Hulu Live TV, FuboTV or Sling TV)
Washington is 4-3 in their last seven games with the four wins by a combined 14 points and the 3 losses by a combined 33 points. The Huskies haven’t just struggled they’ve been overmatched at times and even in their wins they’ve had to scratch and claw for everything.
Utah State on the other hand is a trendy Cinderella due to their balanced scoring and winning ways of late. Let me make one thing clear I am not a homer, I didn’t even pick the Huskies to win the Pac-12 tournament. But I don’t buy the hype.
For all the hand-wringing about the Huskies winning a terrible conference, note that while the Pac-12 is only 7th in RPI the Mountain West which Utah State didn’t even win outright during the regular season, was ranked 15th. Even in winning the conference tournament the Aggies avoided Nevada.
Keys to the Game for Washington
Keep Sam Merrill in Check
Merrill is the real deal averaging 21.2 ppg and I’m not sure the Huskies have faced a 2-guard to his caliber during Pac-12 Play. The only similar scorers in the Pac-12 in terms of efficiency are Robert Franks and Tres Tinkle who profile more as hybrid 3’s in a 4’s body.
The 6’5” Merrill will get his points but I also know Mike Hopkins 2-3 zone has held other high-profile guards such as Auburn’s Jared Harper (15.2 ppg) to 3 for 12 shooting, Gonzaga’s Josh Perkins 11 ppg to a a 3 for 11 night , Virginia Tech’s Justin Robinson (13.7 ppg) to a 3 for 11 night in earlier matches against ranked opponents. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Huskies force someone other than Merrill to beat them.
Win the Turnover Battle
The Huskies don’t want to get into a track meet with the Aggies. They were 38th in the nation in scoring and 17th in scoring margin. They out-rebound opponents by an average of 8.9 per game which was 6th in the nation and were also 6th in the nation in assist per game. But there are chinks in the armor, for example the Aggies were 8th in the Mountain West in turnovers per game and the Huskies can force turnovers with the best of them. The Aggies were 138th in the nation in steals so they aren’t going to bring a lot of defensive pressure like Oregon.
Figure it out on Offense
While Washington’s offensive struggles are well documented they broke the 70 mark against both USC and Colorado. Oregon has made the Huskies look bad offensively three times this year but not many teams can throw four athletic and long 6’9” starters at the Huskies like the Ducks did. When you consider the Huskies are 1-2 against the Ducks and 16-2 against everyone else in the Pac-12 you may even remember this is not a bad basketball team.
Free Throws
The Aggies were 10th in the Mountain West in fouls out of 11 teams. While they are a physical group and can protect the rim (51st in blocked shots) the Huskies should get plenty of opportunities to get to the free throw line. In the Pac-12 tournament the Huskies were awful at the line going 31-50 (62%), that won’t cut it in crunch time of the NCAA Tournament. Utah State Center Neemias Queta had a sensational freshman year shooting 63% from the field and averaging 11.9 ppg and nearly 9 rebounds but he also averaged 3 fouls a game and fouled out 3 times. Expect the Huskies to be much more aggressive going to the rim after shooting a season low 8 free throws in their Pac-12 Championship loss to Oregon.
Prediction: Utah State may be a very good team but their lack of familiarity with Washington could be an issue early. The Huskies have four seniors in their rotation, the Utes have two seniors on their whole roster. With some of those intangibles I think the Huskies will play with some urgency something they were missing in the previous two losses to Oregon. The Huskies have yet to lose back to back games this year and while I don’t know if they have the offensive balance to go deep in this tournament, I do think they will live to bark another day.
Prediction: Washington 68 Utah State 60
