Washington will face #8 USC in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals following the Trojans 78-65 opening round win over Arizona.. We preview the matchup and what the Huskies need to do to get back in the win column.
Who: Washington Huskies (#1 seed) vs. USC Trojans (#8 seed)
Where: Pac-12 Tournament – Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Today, Noon Tip-Off
How to Watch: Pac-12 Networks (7 Day Free-Trial on Sling & FuboTV)
Washington has yet to lose consecutive games this year and hope to keep that streak intact. In their way is a USC team that had lost four in a row before defeating the Wildcats. The Trojans had lost 7 of 9 after starting conference play 6-3.
The USC/Arizona game was tied at 40 at half-time but the Trojans used an 18-2 run to pull away in the second-half. Bennie Boatwright had 22 points and 11 rebounds to lead USC. His front-court mate Nick Rakocevic never got going. Rakocevic had been averaging 14.9 ppg and 9.3 rpg but struggled from the field where he was just 1 of 5. He finished with 6 points and 2 rebounds against the Wildcats playing just 23 minutes due to foul trouble.
Last meeting: January 30th, 2019 Washington 75, USC 62
Noah Dickerson scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds to lead Washington. The Huskies who are generally a below-average rebounding team outrebounded the Trojans 40 to 28. Boatwright led the Trojans with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Keys to the Game for Washington
Ugly up the game and force turnovers
The Trojans had only 8 turnovers against the Wildcats and for the season averaged the fewest per game of any Pac-12 team. Washington forced them into 18 turnovers in Seattle, seven above their average. On paper the Trojans are one of the Pac-12s most talented teams and have a star freshman Kevin Porter Jr. coming off the bench. They also lead the conference in assist per game in conference play.
Move the Ball Better
Washington had an abysmal 4 to 15 assist to turnover ratio against the Oregon Ducks. When they were successful they were proficient at moving the ball quickly and making the extra pass. Lately guards have picked up their dribble in bad spots and big men have been unable to pass out of double teams leading to turnovers and fast break opportunities for the opposition. I think the Huskies need to get the ball in Jaylen Nowell’s hand more. When they are at their best he’s able to create for himself. That also allows David Crisp to play off the ball where he’s more efficient as a shooter.
Take Advantage of a Tired Team
The Huskies are playing on five days days rest but the Trojans will have less than 22 hours to recuperate. The Trojans led the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting this year at 38.2% but what kind of legs will they have? A big factor for Arizona staying in the game was keeping Rakocevic in foul trouble, he fouled out when Washington and USC played in Seattle.
Prediction: So on the one hand USC lost 10 Pac-12 games but half of those losses were by five points or less. I don’t buy that the Trojans are cured after beating a bad Arizona team but tournaments are tricky as the top seeded Huskies found out seven years ago in the quarterfinals against Oregon State. While the Trojans may have tired legs, teams who play the opening game are often able to generate some momentum.
Tournament games often come down to free throw shooting and I have concerns that the Huskies have shot below 66% in 4 out of their past 5 games. The good news is USC happens to be the worst free throw shooting team in the Pac-12 making just 61.5% in conference games and they weren’t much better against Arizona going just 12 for 19.
I think Washington could start slow but will play with more urgency than they did against Oregon setting up a date with either #5 Colorado or #4 Oregon State.
Prediction: Washington 77, USC 65
Last Game Prediction: Washington 68 Oregon 60
Actual Score: Oregon 55 Washington 47
