#7 WASHINGTON (5-1, 3-0) @ #17 Oregon (4-1, 1-1)
TODAY, 12:30 PM 
AUTZEN STADIUM (Eugene, OR)
TV:ABC 
RADIO: KOMO AM 1000 and FM 97.7
LINE: UW -3.5

Despite what anyone wants to believe, this has truly become one of the most important games on Washington’s schedule year in and year out. 

Chris Petersen and his squad will say, “It’s just like any other game”, but we all know that’s just coach-speak.

Oregon had always been a Northwest rival, but in the past 20 years this rivalry has become an even bigger deal to Husky fans than their in-state rivals, the Washington State Cougars.

For Oregon fans, it’s the only game on their schedule that matters. Beat the Huskies — that’s their primary aim. And it worked for several years while the Huskies were down and Chip Kelly’s staff was producing extremely good football teams. But then, the Duck’s run was over. Kelly left, Mark Helfrich couldn’t maintain that momentum, and the Ducks returned to being average again.

Washington destroyed them in Eugene in 2016 on their way to a Pac-12 championship and a playoff berth, and last year the Huskies stomped them again — this time in Seattle.

Now the Ducks have the Huskies back in Eugene again and, this year, they think they have a chance at beating the Huskies once again.

To be honest, it’s all very silly. Oregon fans, and even some of their players talk as if they are entitled to beat the Huskies, despite the fact that they still trail the Huskies in the overall series record (65-45-5), but they had a run between the years of 2004 and 2015 and those are the only years that seem to matter to these Oregon folks.

That “streak” was finally broken, yet the replays of the famous “pick” from back in the 90’s continues to play on on any given Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

But if we were to look at this game as “just another game” on the Huskies’ schedule, what would it look like?

Take away all the history and banter and insane Duck fan diatribes, who are these Ducks of 2018 and do the Huskies have a shot at winning this game today?

Las Vegas seems to think so — if by a very small margin. 

We’ve all watched Washington play a pretty daunting schedule the first six weeks of this season; Auburn on the road, Utah on the road, UCLA on the road, and then ASU, North Dakota, and BYU at home. 

The Huskies’ only loss was by five points to SEC power, Auburn in a game at Atlanta. 

The Husky defense continues to be the best in the conference in the points-against category, however, and they field a very balanced offense.

Oregon, on the other hand, has played Bowling Green, Portland State, San Jose State, and Stanford, all at home. They lost to Stanford and, before the bye week, beat a Cal team who lost to Arizona last weekend who lost to Utah (who the Huskies beat) last night, 42-10.

Washington’s defense has kept their opponents in check by only allowing an average of 13 points per game, while Oregon’s defense (despite all those home games) has allowed 24 points per game on defense.

So here’s what we see for today:

A lot of hyped up Ducks fans

A lot of hyped up Duck players

A Husky team who has blood in their eye

A Duck team seeking revenge for the past two blowouts

Oregon likes to score a lot of points

Washington’s defense doesn’t like teams to score a lot of points

The team that wins will be the team who can play four quarters of football, however, and this has not been Oregon’s strong suit all season. Their defense has a bad habit of taking their foot off the gas in the second half of every game played — even against Portland State and Bowling Green and San Jose State. 

Will they be able to hold off the running attack of Washington? The passing attack of Jake Browning? 

This is where I struggle to come up with an idea of who this Oregon team really is. The only real big Pac-12 test they took, they completely fell apart and lost in overtime. Other than that, their schedule has been so smushy it’s almost comparable to a marshmellow over a hot fire.

Who are they? We all know Justin Herbert is a good quarterback. He may be the biggest star on the field today in terms of this year’s Ducks. They do have a pretty good offensive line, but Washington will be the best team they’ve faced all season. 

So, aside from Herbert, watch out for Dillon Mitchell who has recorded 442 yards on 27 catches and two touchdowns for the season, and tailback CJ Verdell who has 420 yards on 68 carries and two touchdowns for the season.

What advantages do the Ducks have?

Home crowd, of course. Also, they had a bye week last week and so they are healthy and had an extra week to prepare. 

What does Washington need to do to win? 

We broke this question down in detail earlier in the week, but in a nutshell:

[icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””] Work through the first few minutes of hype and pressure

 [icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””] Run the ball

[icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””]  Protect Jake Browning and give him time

[icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””]  Man up in the secondary

[icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””]  Beat up on Herbert

[icon name=”caret-right” class=”” unprefixed_class=””]  Avoid turnovers and costly penalties

Predictions:

Kyle Waltos: Washington 30 Oregon 24

Ruth Robbins: Washington 38 Oregon 21