Washington has been favored going into every game this season, that’s going to change this weekend. Going into Thursday night, the #25 Huskies are two-touchdown underdogs, with #6 Oregon the betting favorite at -13.5 points. For a matchup between two ranked teams with similarly suspect defenses (and elite offenses), that seems insanely high. But Vegas always seems to know something that everyone else doesn’t, so first let’s dive into why that number is what it is.
Outside of the thrashing they took at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon has been excellent this season, averaging 43.1 points per game, which is good for the third-highest-scoring offense in the nation. They’re undefeated at home, and beat the #9 UCLA Bruins 45-30 just a few weeks ago. This is also the first true road game that Washington’s coaching staff will face, as the combined attendance at all three road games they’ve had this season will probably be less than the number of fans that will pack Autzen Stadium on Saturday. So with that being said, how can the Huskies pull off the upset?
With defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi at the helm, Oregon has been just as suspect as Washington during Pac-12 play. The Ducks are allowing one of the highest completion percentages in the conference in 2022, with opponents completing over 65% of their passes, good for the conference’s 11th-ranked pass defense, allowing 276.5 yards per game. That should be something the Huskies, who have the best passing attack in the nation, averaging 370 yards per game. Another impressive stat about head coach Kalen DeBoer’s passing attack is it’s averaging 35 yards per game more than the Tennesee Volunteers, who currently have the second-ranked passing offense.
Oregon is also allowing a 48% conversion rate on third down, which is good for ninth in the conference. However, Washington’s defense is allowing a 47.1% conversion rate on third down, which is eighth in the Pac-12. Whichever team can get a few more stops on third down is going to win the game, now, why can that team be the Huskies?
The biggest matchup that’s going to be highlighted going into the game is Oregon’s offensive line against Washington’s defensive line. The Ducks have only allowed one sack this season, while the Huskies have recorded 26, the second-best total in the Pac-12. But let’s take a look at the other side, and talk about Washington’s offensive line against Oregon’s defensive line.
The Ducks have recorded 15 sacks this season, while the Huskies have only allowed seven, which is the second-best number in the conference. If the Huskies can control the line of scrimmage and give Michael Penix time to throw, they should give themselves a shot. All it takes is getting a few more third-down stops than the Ducks, and that’s doable. Now it’s on the coaching staff to get the scheme right, and get their guys ready for the only true hostile environment they’ve seen so far.
