The UW Huskies have been consistent in their inconsistency this football season.
Wins against USC and Michigan?
Losses against Indiana and Rutgers?
Out-gaining every opponent they lost to?
The only thing this team has done is defy expectations, both good and bad—they’ve been consistently inconsistent.
A 3-0 start with seemingly winnable games against Washington State and Rutgers had fans excited about the prospect of a 5-0 start with tougher games on the back half of the schedule. Michigan, USC, Penn State, and Oregon appeared likely losses.
We know what happened: Losses to WSU and Rutgers reset expectations for the season, and a win against Michigan did the same. Losses to a typically stout Iowa and a surprisingly strong Indiana made bowl eligibility a major concern, but the picture looked a bit clearer after a home win against USC.
There is certainly a key difference between the wins against Michigan and USC and the upcoming matchups against Penn State and Oregon. Michigan and USC have proven vastly overrated to preseason/early season rankings, whereas Penn State and Oregon have made it 3/4ths of the way through the season with a single combined loss (against Ohio State, no less).
With all that in mind, let’s examine some optimism for victory and a path to defeat against both top-6 teams in the initial CFP poll.
Penn State:
Reasons for Optimism:
The Nittany Lions haven’t played a tough schedule outside of Ohio State.
More specifically, they have yet to play and beat any team currently ranked in the CFP top 25. The Illinois win stands out as the best win, as they held the 6-3 Illini to 219 yards of offense and held time of possession for the majority of the game. The loss to Ohio State, while close, was made closer by an early pick-6 and a fumble through the Penn State end zone by Buckeyes QB Will Howard. Speaking of the Ohio State game…
They are coming off of their most physically demanding game of the season.
Just as Ohio State struggled against a middling Nebraska team following their own loss to Oregon, this could be a combination of an emotional hangover and a tired team, which might give UW a chance at an away win against a tough Penn State home crowd. More on that later.
Offensive inconsistency.
The Penn State offense is good, no doubt. They average 30.8 points per game and 440 yards per game, but the strength of this team is the defense as it has been for years. The offense has gone over 30 points only once in conference play, and the offense hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher since week four. A few games in particular stand out. Against USC (an overtime victory), the leading rusher was Kaytron Allen with 56 rushing yards. Against Ohio State, all-purpose TE Tyler Warren led the team with 47 rushing yards. Stop the run, and Washington has a chance.
Reasons why UW fans shouldn’t get their hopes up:
The White Out atmosphere.
Washington has yet to win a game away from home this season. Penn State has one of the most formidable home environments in the sport, and the White Out game specifically is arguably the very best. Will Rogers in particular has been considerably less efficient away from home, and that will probably not change against Penn State.
The run defense isn’t strong enough.
Against Penn State’s somewhat limited passing game, it would seem the Huskies’ #1 pass defense holds a significant advantage when PSU has the ball. However, if Drew Allar has no reason to pass the football, it will be impossible for the UW secondary to capitalize on any potential mistakes. Perhaps the biggest key to victory is UW’s ability to stop the run, but the health and ability of the defensive line is Washington’s primary defensive concern.
How will UW move the ball?
Penn State ranks 7th in the nation on total defense and 8th in scoring defense. The run defense is not as strong as in past years, but if PSU can make the Washington offense one-dimensional with their top-20 passing defense and strong home environment, they will be able to take advantage of an inconsistent UW offensive line en route to a low-scoring victory.
Oregon:
Reasons for Optimism:
Dan Lanning is allergic to beating Washington.
In each of the last three Washington-Oregon rivalry games, Lanning’s team has held the lead with less than 20 minutes remaining. If you are somebody who doesn’t believe it until they see it, you’ll have to watch UO celebrate after the final whistle is blown before you trust that Dan Lanning won’t find a way to punt the game away (no Jimmy Lake pun intended). Perhaps Dan Lanning is just the reverse of Mario Cristobal. Whereas Cristobal beat Washington in all three of his chances and dropped a few surprises every year, Lanning has won just about every game outside of the UW rivalry games. He has lost only two games to teams not named Washington as a head coach.
Oregon’s red zone defense is not great.
Ranking 48th in the country, the Ducks’ red zone defense is not bad but not an area of strength. In an area where the Huskies have struggled for much of the year, if they can move the ball (as they have been able to all year) between the 20s, they should have a good chance at coming away with points in Oregon’s territory.
Oregon’s run game isn’t a strength.
Although Oregon has proven it can run when needed, its rushing offense doesn’t rank in the top 50. Oregon’s 11th-ranked passing offense is formidable, but UW fans would rather see strength vs. strength than a dominant rushing attack against their depleted D-Line. The best chance Washington has at an upset is to make Oregon’s offense one-dimensional and slow the game down to a halt.
Reasons why UW fans shouldn’t get their hopes up:
Oregon is an incredibly balanced team.
Washington’s best chance is to make Oregon’s offense one-dimensional, but that will be very challenging. Oregon excels on offense, defense, and special teams. They have a QB who is currently ranked 3rd in Heisman odds, a RB who is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game, and a defense ranked 11th in total defense (just behind Washington). Washington will struggle to find an advantage in a game where it desperately needs at least one concrete one.
Winning at Autzen is hard.
Even when Washington was dominating this rivalry, winning in Eugene wasn’t a guarantee. UW is 13-22 all-time at Autzen Stadium. What’s more, although UW beat Oregon their last time in Eugene (2022), that is the only home loss UO has suffered since 2018 against 7th-ranked Stanford.
Oregon will still have everything to play for.
Even if Oregon drops a surprise game between now and November 30th, the Ducks will still have a Big 10 championship berth to play for, and almost definitely a playoff spot on the line as well. The best chance Washington would have to beat Oregon is if the Ducks play below their talent level, but that is hard to imagine. UW’s three-game win streak against them should have UO plenty ready all by itself, and the Ducks having all of their goals still in front of them makes it unlikely that the Huskies can pull off the massive upset.
Does the flummoxing 2024 UW team have one more surprise in store, or will they once again prove that a win of this magnitude is a season too early?
We will let Jedd Fisch and Co. answer that one.
